Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Berkana CEO Glenn Gradeen: An Open Letter To The Premier

Berkana CEO Glenn Gradeen: An Open Letter To The Premier

October 4, 2007

Attention: Honourable Ed Stelmach, MLA

RE: An open letter regarding the Royalty Review Panel Recommendations.

Dear Mr. Stelmach;

My name is Glenn Gradeen; I am the Chief Executive Officer of Berkana Energy Corp. We are a growth focused Canadian junior energy company based in Alberta. We are a publicly traded (TSX: BEC) company with a mandate to grow our production and reserves at 20% to 30% per year. We currently produce about 3,000 barrels of energy equivalent per day; over 95% of our production is in the province of Alberta.

I wanted to write this letter to express my dismay at the conclusions and recommendations of the Royalty Review panel. My sense is that you are going to have a difficult time dealing with those recommendations in a rational fashion that is good for the Province's long term economic health. This sense of dismay is further compounded by the musings of the Auditor General in the press over the past couple of days (by the way - since when does the Auditor General set government policy? I thought he was there to ensure that policy was being followed and monies were collected and disbursed in accordance with government policy). The media and publicity opportunists are currently setting expectations based largely on spin (e.g. "Fair Share") and flawed analysis. Please do not let that run away on you. Just because one has the ability to unilaterally change a deal and take more - doesn't mean it is right to do so.

Having lived in Alberta virtually all my life - and having seen the ups and downs of this business - it is clear to me that you must resist the temptation to follow the directions being promoted by that review. I have many reasons for saying this, but fundamentally it comes down to your leadership - doing the right thing for the people of this province. Showing vision for the long term.

Let me start off with four things to consider:

1) Has the panel and the energy ministry looked at the earnings (earnings - not cash flows) of junior Canadian energy companies? You will not find many with positive earnings. The reason for that is simple. The cost structure, land bonus, royalties, capital costs and operating costs leaves very tight margins. We work in one of the highest (per unit) cost environments in the world. Is it not clear that we are already heading into a slow-down because of the high cost of doing business here in Alberta?

2) Has the Panel considered the current cost of finding new reserves? By adding more royalties onto higher deliverability wells, junior companies such Berkana will no longer be able to drill the 4 or 5 dry holes it takes to find one good well.

3) Has the Panel considered what happened to the provincial economy the last time (1981) we had a price run up and the governments (federal and provincial - just like now) tried to squeeze more and more of the margin from the energy sector? It took us more than a decade to recover from that debacle.

4) Has the Panel considered that with all the other costs - even though our royalty rates might appear to be lower than certain other jurisdictions, the overall cost of doing business here makes Alberta largely uncompetitive - EVEN WITH THE CURRENT ROYALTY AND LAND BONUS SYSTEM - hence the existing slowdown. Companies are already taking their capital elsewhere.

I am concerned that I see evidence (which I hope is incorrect) of the political leadership within Alberta becoming less and less friendly to small business. Small businesses such as Berkana, I believe are the engine of growth and prosperity here in our Province. Over the past year we have seen the federal Conservatives change the taxation rules relating to royalty trusts; we have seen the Alberta provincial government remove the Alberta Royalty Tax Credit; we have seen an appreciating Canadian dollar and increasingly volatile natural gas prices; and, we have seen a dramatic increase in the cost of doing business here in Alberta. Now, I realize not all of these things are direct results of the policies of the Alberta government; however, there is action you can take to foster and promote an environment which encourages small business. Penalizing business, especially small business, is not an action plan that will provide for long term economic health.

The Conservative Party in Canada, and particularly in Alberta, were historically (and I'm speaking to 25+ years ago) seen as the party of "big business". More recently - say the past 10 to 20 years, the Alberta Conservatives seemed to promote policies which encouraged small business growth. Perhaps it was the rural, farming and ranching roots. However, it appears to me that we are currently moving back to that old modus operandi. Look at what is happening. Do you really believe that Imperial Oil or Encana care about ARTC? (Yes - they will take it, if available - but the minor amount has no meaningful impact on their bottom lines). The only real impact is a negative one on smaller producers such as Berkana.

I ask you from the bottom of my heart to consider (a) waiting to implement and take the time to properly analyze the impact of the recommendations - they have been made with flawed and incomplete assumptions; and, (b) if some changes are to be made then provide for a phase-in over time - and some encouragement for small business to continue exploring to find those higher rate wells - so that we do not continue this slide into simply stripper wells and resource plays.

The royalty structure being proposed will seriously and negatively impact Berkana's ability to operate and generate profits for our shareholders and our employees. Berkana is just one of literally hundreds of small energy companies in Alberta - and if it damages our ability to do business - by extension it will damage most of our peers as well. This means shareholders will look elsewhere - that means less access to capital, less drilling - and therefore, less discoveries. I will follow-up this letter with one to Mel Knight with some of the numbers as we see them.

This is a question of vision and the long term. This is a critical point in your tenure as Premier. The negative impact on provincial treasury revenues will not be immediate. You and your government will be able to slide through and point to increased revenues for a brief time. The negative consequences will take some time to be felt- and we will find ourselves with a bureaucracy hooked on the high levels of easy cash income - but a declining business environment. Yes the oil sands may sustain us for a while - but small business has limited opportunity there - it is far too capital intensive - the barriers to entry are prohibitive. How many times have we seen this in Canada. One need only look at the sad state of the legacy businesses in Ontario (manufacturing) or in BC (forestry). By not continually renewing, refreshing and encouraging for the long term - we will end up in the same state.

Finally, I'd like you to consider the mixed messages your government has been sending by giving back $400 to all Albertans. Let us now rub our transient oil wealth into the faces of the rest of country. Let us spend millions to return money that we overtaxed from the people in the first place. The resources don't belong to the government of Alberta. They belong to the people of Alberta. My company employs Albertans. If you really want to show leadership and vision for the future - encourage Alberta Junior Energy Companies to find more and grow our businesses.

Increasing taxes and royalties will not do that.

Mr. Stelmach. We need a vision for the future. We need leadership. Yes there are difficult decisions to make - but I ask you to not take the easy way out. Follow the populist route and we will end up like so many other failing jurisdictions. You have the chance to take the government off of cruise control - and show leadership. Show some vision and let's continue to build this as the best place on the planet to live, do business and raise our children.

Yours truly,

Glenn D. Gradeen
President & CEO
BERKANA ENERGY CORP.

Cc Mel Knight - Minister of Energy
Dr. Kevin Taft, MLA - Leader Alberta Liberal Party

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

My name is Jim and I am a partner in a small (drilling related) business in Calgary. I've lived here for 52 years. What I see unfolding politically and economically in Alberta deeply concerns me.

The winds of change are indeed increasing in intensity in our province. I feel as though we're neglecting the lessons we could have learned from our provincial neighbors to the east and west. That is, socialism doesn't do any economy or individual any good in the long term - period.

For the first time, I can sense a sea of left-wing thinking surrounding me right here in Alberta. There seems to be a lot of public whimpering happening relative to the royalty report. For the first time I see people with their hands out, wanting more of something, when it appears they can't be bothered to become familiar with the basic details of the issue.

For me, it's real and it's worrisome and it boils down to a childish attitude. Especially as Calgary-based investment bankers are reporting that “The data used to create the report on Alberta's royalty review was either flawed, inaccurate or dated, and the comparisons used for other jurisdictions and basins are also flawed”. That prospect in itself eradicates any hope I had for a purely democratic process being used to discover and make public both the facts and feelings in this matter.

Unfortunately it seems some Albertans overlook that we're living in one of the most vibrant economies in the world. Does anyone remember the $400 cheques we all received? That was nice, but I suppose - to coin my teenage daughter - “that was so last year”. Do Albertans truthfully appreciate that we have the lowest personal tax rates in Canada? Or that we have no sales tax? Or that our Heritage fund grew by $2 billion last year? Many Albertans added a substantial amount to their net worth as real estate boomed once again in the past year. All in all – we’re doing OK.

I wonder then, what more do we really want? When will we truly be happy?

And what of the increased revenue when the new tax is levied? Has anybody indicated exactly how this anticipated $2 billion will be allocated? Hopefully we have some very important individuals studying this closely. (Not the royalty review panel this time.) I hope I am lucky enough that a small token of my personal portion of the forthcoming fair share is destined toward a public project that I support. This could help me convince myself that I`m actually back in a democracy again.

I'm inclined to believe the review exercise was doomed from inception. The title, "Our Fair Share" unashamedly implies a non-objective bias, likely with the intent of dividing Albertans. Our fair share indeed. I also believe the motivation for many of the public pro-royalty-increase statements clearly amounts to self-seeking political grandstanding, without adequate reflection on the consequences for Albertans. While I respect and appreciate there are diverse opinions, I cringe whenever a new individual or organization steps up to declare their support for the entire suite of recommendations promoted by the panel.

For example, the economists from U of A and U of C who commented that the Encana announcement wouldn't affect our economy, couldn't be bothered to postulate further - to think it through. That is: Encana's 1 billion dollar reduction in spending is in reality a fraction of the eventual total. As professors in economics, these fellows need to be more cognizant that in commenting publically the way they did, they might be misguiding people who are looking to them for impartial third party expertise.

I can't understand Frank Dunn's motivation for getting involved - is it political? Apparently he previously reported there were more royalty dollars available. And this: "I know there's a lot of analysis out there by the industry and some challenges being given by the industry," said Dunn after releasing the report. "(But) the resources belong to Albertans. There is no reason why we should be selling them cheaper than other jurisdictions." Respectfully, what purpose does this comment actually serve in today's discussions? Of course the resource is ours.

The Pembina Institute's involvement is perhaps the most questionable of all the groups in this debate. I can't perceive how a pure environmentalist could imagine he has any business assuming the role of a political / business / economics expert. This contradicts the very premise of the institute's mission and vision - discrediting the objectivity and forthrightness of their core endeavors - in my opinion. I feel that the Pembina Institutes' endorsement of the statement, "royalty rates can be increased substantially while sustaining a competitive investment climate" is absurd.

Being controversial is an efficient means of gleaning publicity, but discounting the basic facts and skewing the issues to the detriment of the well being of my family, friends and employees is dishonorable. Shame on all of you - and congratulations as well, as the polls indicate the opinions of most Albertans have been officially swayed.

I think we all understand the resource is ours. However, I wish all Albertans could appreciate that it's a mature basin and it’s hard to find cheap oil here. As a consequence, the only items offsetting the risk of finding and producing our hydrocarbons are Alberta’s political stability and the hope of an acceptable profit.

The way I see it, we’d better be careful. Although our economy is currently vibrant, it's not at all resilient. It’s fragile - because it is resource based. Oil producers are struggling right now and the figures are sobering. The number of wells drilled here will have decreased by 30% in 2007. (For each well drilled, about 100 job positions are required). Producers are combating unfavorable trends in: gas prices, labor and equipment prices, interest rates, exchange rates and capital cost allowance amendments. Several have gone out of business this year.

In anticipation of this new adversity, oil and gas companies are working on 2008 budget cutting scenarios right now. If the panel's recommendations are implemented, the oil drillers are curtailing activity substantially. That’s the bottom line – it has nothing to do with being vindictive – it’s just business. I believe that literally thousands of Alberta jobs of every description will be lost if the panel’s recommendations are accepted. I also believe billions of dollars in petroleum revenue will vanish in the coming years. I trust the reporters, economists and "think tank" people don't truly suppose they have the where-with-all to drill an oil well or process bitumen or build a pipeline. Perhaps they feel the teachers and produce department managers will get the job done.

To conclude, in order to keep his job, it is likely that the premier will revert to some form of compromise. His safest course would be to hold a referendum – enabling him to honorably abandon all related responsibility while simultaneously demonstrating his democratic sincerity. However, no matter how the decision is weighted, Albertans are in for a rough ride in the months and years ahead.

Jim Masikewich
Calgary