Sunday, March 16, 2008

"Safety" in Commodities Futures......

"On Wall Street and elsewhere, skittish investors are continuing to flee to the safety of gold and oil futures, and away from the U.S. dollar amid widespread concern that the United States has slipped into recession."
Whole article is here

Rolling on the floor laughing here! Fleeing to the safety of the commodities future market? I've never heard of the volatile commodities futures markets as being considered "safe" investments before. Bizarro world change is in full progress. WTF indeed.

Bear Stearns Liquidated at $2/share, Down From $30/share Close on Friday

The fecal material is hitting the fan. Investment bank icon Bear Stearns basically worthless..... I'm pretty sure that JP Morgan would only be taking them out to avoid issues with counterparty liabilities. Very bad stuff......
Asian stock markets went into a freefall after Bear Stearns, trading at $30 by Friday's close, announced a deal to be sold to JP Morgan for $2/share in a stock-swap transaction. Bear Stearns' price peaked at $170 in 2007. "The price is indicative that there were bigger problems at Bear than clients and the public realized," said Ron Geffner at Sadis & Goldberg.
Whole article is here

Saturday, March 8, 2008

New 'super-spike' might mean $200 a barrel oil


Goldman's projections foretell persistent turbulence in energy prices


By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch

Last update: 1:42 p.m. EST March 7, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With $100-a-barrel here for now, Goldman Sachs says $200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption."

Goldman on Friday also boosted by $10 the low end of its 2008-2012 projected range for crude to $60 a barrel -- significantly lower than current prices, to be sure, but a possible mark for oil if "normalized" trends return to the marketplace.
With the dollar's fall continuing and financial markets roiled by the credit crunch, commodities like oil have been drawing the fancy of increasing numbers of investors. Accordingly, Wall Street firms have been eager to adjust forecasts to incorporate fresh data on the global economy and energy supplies.

Goldman analysts Arjun Murti, Kevin Koh and Michele della Vigna said prices have advanced more quickly than Goldman had forecast back in 2005, when it predicted a range of $50 to $105 a barrel as part of its "super-spike" oil theory.
"We characterized the upper end of the band as more likely to be driven by geopolitical turmoil and that recession was a key risk to our view," the analysts said. "In fact, oil prices have reached $100 a barrel without extraordinary turmoil, and the U.S. currently appears to be in recession."

Tacking on $15 a barrel to all of its oil estimates, Goldman now sees average selling prices of $95 a barrel for 2008, $105 a barrel for 2009 and $110 a barrel for 2010. The high end of its range is now $135 a barrel -- but Goldman hinted that prices could be headed even higher.

"As the lack of supply growth and price-insulated non-OECD demand suggest a future rebound in U.S. gross domestic product growth or a major oil supply disruption could lead to $150-$200 a barrel oil prices," Goldman said.

While saying it has a bullish long-term outlook, Goldman acknowledged that oil prices could correct from recent highs.

Favorite picks among energy stocks include Frontier Oil, Cabot Oil & Gas in the U.S. as well as Eni, Repsol, and Gazprom overseas.

Goldman also reiterated its view that oil prices could fall as normal market conditions return over the next four years.

"The core of our 'super-spike' view is that oil prices will keep rising until demand declines globally on a multiyear basis, resulting in the return of excess capacity and a lower cost structure," Goldman's analysts said. "Given this view, once excess capacity returns, we think prices can move sharply lower."

The analysts reiterated their "attractive" view on the European energy sector, but kept a neutral view on the Russian sector due to costs. It upgraded Transneft and Sibir Energy to neutral from sell after underperformance, and cut Imperial Energy to sell from neutral on capital-spending requirements.

Friday, March 7, 2008

Broccoli compound boost for immune health

By Stephen Daniells

07-Mar-2008 - A compound found in broccoli, previously linked to anti-cancer benefits, may also counter the decline in the body's immune system associated with age, says a new study from UCLA.
The compound sulforaphane was found to activate a set of antioxidant genes and enzymes in specific immune cells, which then combat the detrimental effects of free radicals that can damage cells and lead to disease, reports the study in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology.

"Our defence against oxidative stress damage may determine at what rate we age, how it will manifest and how to interfere in those processes," explained lead researcher Andre Nel from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

"In particular, our study shows that a chemical present in broccoli is capable of stimulating a wide range of antioxidant defence pathways and may be able to interfere with the age-related decline in immune function."

more here

Already we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of things to come?

From The Times

March 7, 2008

Carl Mortished, World Business Editor


The spectre of food shortages is casting a shadow across the globe, causing riots in Africa, consumer protests in Europe and panic in food-importing countries. In a world of increasing affluence, the hoarding of rice and wheat has begun. The President of the Philippines made an unprecedented call last week to the Vietnamese Prime Minister, requesting that he promise to supply a quantity of rice.

The personal appeal by Gloria Arroyo to Nguyen Tan Dung for a guarantee was a highly unusual intervention and highlighted the Philippines’ dependence on food imports, rice in particular.

“This is a wake-up call,” said Robert Zeigler, who heads the International Rice Research Institute. “We have a crisis brewing in rice supply.” Half of the planet depends on rice but stocks are at their lowest since the mid1970s when Bangladesh suffered a terrible famine. Rice production will fall this year below the global consumption level of 430 million tonnes.

Street protests and rioting in West Africa towards the end of last year were a harbinger of bigger problems, the World Food Programme said. The global information and early warning system of the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has monitored outbreaks of rioting in Mexico, Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Guinea, Mauritania and Senegal. There have also been protests in Jakarta, the Indonesian capital, over government price increases.Population pressure and increased wealth are mainly to blame for the resurgence of food insecurity. More people are eating meat and dairy products in Asia, which increases the demand on the animal-feed industry. Milk powder prices rose from $2,000 to $4,800 per tonne last year as rising consumption of milk products in Asia coincided with shortages in the Western world. Drought in Australia has worsened the problem as have government policies in Europe and America to increase the use of biofuels.

Mounting concern about rice has prompted the Indian Government to restrict exports of certain varieties. The measure triggered a surge in global rice prices, which have risen 50 per cent in a year, according to the FAO. The rice shortage is even felt in Britain where the price of basmati, the biggest-selling variety, is rising rapidly.

Wheat is suffering even greater pressures, with prices up 115 per cent in a year. A succession of droughts in Australia has put upward pressure on the cost of a food commodity that is already in short supply. Stocks are at a 40-year low and exports are being restricted from Beijing to Buenos Aires. Ukraine started closing its door to grain exports in June and Russia set a 40 per cent export tariff on wheat in January.

Argentina has delayed the reopening of its wheat export registry until April to protect domestic supplies, and China, a net exporter of corn, rice and wheat last year, has imposed export quotas on grain in order to stem runaway food price inflation. A surge in its inflation index in December was blamed entirely on rising food prices, notably pork, which rose 48 per cent.

Farmers worldwide are worried about feed costs. In Europe pig and poultry breeders are threatening to cut production unless they are paid higher prices.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Carlyle Capital Adds to Fears Of Forced Sales

By MARGOT PATRICK and RAGNHILD KJETLAND
March 6, 2008 11:50 a.m.

LONDON -- Carlyle Capital Corp., a listed investment company managed by a unit of private-equity firm the Carlyle Group, added to worries about forced liquidations of residential mortgage-backed securities after failing to meet margin calls on its $21.7 billion portfolio Wednesday.

Carlyle Capital said Thursday that it has received a notice of default from one of the banks that helps finance its portfolio of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae securities through short-term repurchase agreements, known as repos, and that it expects to receive at least one more default notice after falling short of margin requirements with four lenders.

It said seven repo counterparties had demanded an additional $37 million Wednesday to keep funding in place. It met the requirements of three of them, which it said had indicated "a willingness to work with the company during these tumultuous times."

Carlyle Capital as recently as Monday had reassured investors on its funding lines, saying it had $2.4 billion in undrawn repo lines and that it had increased a credit facility provided by the Carlyle Group by 50%, to $150 million. Its lenders as of Dec. 31 were: Bank of America Corp., Bear Stearns Cos., BNP Paribas SA, Calyon, Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse Group, Deutsche Bank AG, ING Groep NV, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG.

The repurchase agreements outstanding at that date had an average maturity of 20 days. Carlyle Capital's longest-dated repo line is for three months. The company leverages its $670 million equity 32 times to finance a $21.7 billion portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities issued by U.S. housing agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. All of the securities are rated Triple-A and are considered to be implicitly guaranteed by the U.S. government.

Carlyle Capital said Thursday that it has been subject to margin calls and additional collateral requirements totaling more than $60 million over the past week, and had met all calls up until March 5.


(more)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120479022207116361.html

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

NASA Baffled by Unexplained Force Acting on Space Probes


By Charles Q. Choi
Special to SPACE.com
posted: 03 March 2008
10:03 am ET

Mysteriously, four spacecraft that flew past the Earth have each displayed unexpected anomalies in their motions.

These newfound enigmas join the so-called "Pioneer anomaly" as hints that unexplained forces may appear to act on spacecraft.

A decade ago, after rigorous analyses, anomalies were seen with the identical Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft as they hurtled out of the solar system. Both seemed to experience a tiny but unexplained constant acceleration toward the sun.

A host of explanations have been bandied about for the Pioneer anomaly. At times these are rooted in conventional science — perhaps leaks from the spacecraft have affected their trajectories. At times these are rooted in more speculative physics — maybe the law of gravity itself needs to be modified.

Now Jet Propulsion Laboratory astronomer John Anderson and his colleagues — who originally helped uncover the Pioneer anomaly — have discovered that four spacecraft each raced either a tiny bit faster or slower than expected when they flew past the Earth en route to other parts of the solar system.

'Humble and perplexed'

The researchers looked at five deep-space probes — Galileo to Jupiter, the NEAR mission to the asteroid Eros, the Rosetta probe to a comet, Cassini to Saturn, and the MESSENGER craft to Mercury. Each spacecraft flew past the our planet to either gain or lose orbital energy in their quests to reach their eventual targets. (Galileo made two flybys.)

In five of the six flybys, the scientists have confirmed anomalies.

"I am feeling both humble and perplexed by this," said Anderson, who is now working as a retiree. "There is something very strange going on with spacecraft motions. We have no convincing explanation for either the Pioneer anomaly or the flyby anomaly."

More here

Perfectly Normal

Yikes, the Cadman affair is looking like a first-rate political shit-storm.

First:

"Perfectly normal"

By KATHLEEN HARRIS, NATIONAL BUREAU CHIEF

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says it was "perfectly normal" for Conservative officials to offer a dying man financial assistance to wage a re-election campaign.

Under heavy fire from all opposition parties, Harper insisted the financial offer made to Chuck Cadman before a critical May 2005 vote was normal and permitted by law.

"We wanted Chuck Cadman to rejoin our party. The party was prepared to assist Chuck Cadman in securing his nomination and to ensure, financially and otherwise, that he was able to fight a successful election campaign," he said.

But Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe said it's just not credible that party officials would offer a terminally ill man financial help to hit the hustings.

"He had trouble getting to Ottawa, yet he would have had an election campaign in the condition he was in? That's the prime minister's actual answer?" he fumed.


Second:

Unanswered questions

Mar 05, 2008 04:30 AM

Why does this have to be so hard? Why can't Prime Minister Stephen Harper stand up in Parliament or go before the House of Commons ethics committee and provide clear answers to simple questions?

It's no secret that Conservative party officials back in 2005 tried to persuade independent Member of Parliament Chuck Cadman, who was dying of cancer at the time, to rejoin the Tory caucus and topple Paul Martin's minority Liberal government in a confidence vote.

But what exactly did the Conservatives offer for Cadman's support?

Three Cadman family members – his wife Dona, his daughter Jodi, and his son-in-law Holland Miller – all say Cadman told them, in separate conversations, that he was offered some kind of million-dollar "life insurance" deal. If so, that might constitute a bribe and a crime.

Harper fiercely denies any wrongdoing, and he has threatened to sue Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion and others who suggest as much.

Yet when asked two years ago about the policy by Cadman biographer Tom Zytaruk, Harper replied that party officials had "discussions" with Cadman about "financial issues" and "financial insecurity." He also said: "But the, uh, the offer to Chuck was that it was only to replace financial considerations he might lose due to an election, okay? That's my understanding of what they were talking about."

What offer, exactly? What financial issues? What insecurity?

Did anyone from the Conservative party, or claiming ties to it, offer Cadman a million-dollar benefit, with or without Harper's approval?

Instead of casting a libel chill over the Cadman affair, Harper should tell Canadians what he knows. What led him to conclude there was "no truth" to the insurance story when he looked into it? And party insiders Tom Flanagan and Doug Finley need to shed light on precisely what help they offered Cadman and on what terms.

The Royal Canadian Mounted Police have been asked to look into all this by the Liberals. But Parliament needn't defer to a police probe. The ethics committee should be calling Flanagan, Finley and others to testify. If the Conservatives truly have nothing to hide, they should not be standing in the way of such an inquiry.




Third, excerpted from here:

The Conservatives have not yet explained why they first denied any offer had been made, only to later say a repayable loan was offered to Cadman's local riding association to cover campaign expenses if he rejoined the party.

Repeated appeals to the Prime Minister's Office since the Chuck Cadman affair surfaced have failed to yield direct answers to the following questions:

1. Did anyone from the Conservative party, or connected to the Tories, offer Cadman a $1-million life insurance policy?

* Refused to directly answer the question. Tory MP James Moore has repeatedly said officials only offered to take Cadman back into the party.

2. What did Stephen Harper mean when he said in a 2005 interview that "an offer" that included "financial considerations" was made to Cadman?

* Conservative party spokesman Ryan Sparrow said Monday the offer Cadman mentioned in a TV interview was a repayable loan to the local riding association.

3. If Tory officials Tom Flanagan and Doug Finley offered a repayable loan, what was the amount and what were the terms of repayment?

* No answer.

4. Why did the Prime Minister's Office and the Conservatives first deny an offer had been made to Cadman, only to later say a repayable loan was offered?

* No answer.

5. Why didn't Harper reveal last week that he told Dona Cadman more than two years ago that he didn't know about the alleged life-insurance offer?

* No answer.

6. What motivation would Dona Cadman, a Tory candidate in her husband's former riding, have to fabricate a story about the life-insurance offer?

* No answer.


Fourth and finally (anyone seeing a pattern here?)


The interesting case of the former Tory candidate
Posted By Weston, Greg

In the category of stones flying from glass houses, Parliament Hill is definitely alive with the sound of some fine shattering today.

For the first time in history, the prime minister has hired a big-gun lawyer to go after those nasty opposition Liberals for unkind things they have been saying about Stephen Harper's alleged involvement in the Chuck Cadman affair.

This is not just any lawyer. Richard Dearden is arguably the top libel lawyer in the land, having cut his teeth defending journalists like me against intimidating legal actions by the rich and powerful like, well, you know.

Dearden has fired off an ugly note to the Liberals, warning that remarks about Harper on their party website are malicious, reckless, "false and devastatingly defamatory."

The offending statements, of course, relate to allegations Conservative party officials offered Cadman some sort of million-dollar deathbed deal in 2005 in return for his vote to defeat the then-Liberal government of Paul Martin.

Since Cadman was a sitting Independent MP at the time (he died of cancer weeks later), offering to buy his vote would have been highly unethical, if not a criminal offence.

Harper and the Conservative officials involved have denied any such deal was ever offered - ergo, the prime minister apparently feels compelled to sue the official opposition for suggesting he knew of a criminal act.

The prime minister's libel letter is not unlike the lawsuit filed two years ago by Ottawa lawyer and would-be Conservative candidate Alan Riddell - against Harper et al.

Riddell successfully sued Harper and the Conservative party for reneging on a deal to pay him up to $50,000 to step aside as the party's candidate in the riding of Ottawa South.

The party brass under campaign director Doug Finley wanted to hand the riding nomination to Allan Cutler, the former federal public servant who gained national attention as the first major whistleblower in the sponsorship scandal.

Riddell was reluctant to oblige, having spent much time and money to win the nomination.

On Nov. 25, 2005, Riddell and the Conservative party brass finally reached a formal agreement: he would stand aside in exchange for a party guarantee it would compensate him up to $50,000 for the costs he had already incurred.

But the deal didn't hold for a day before there were fireworks, and ultimately a few libel suits.

First, someone inside the party leaked the false story to the media that Riddell had been disqualified as a candidate by his own riding association.

In response, Riddell issued a press release saying he had voluntarily stepped down to clear the way for Cutler's candidacy.

But it was a subsequent news story about money changing hands that brought the most remarkable response of all.

On Dec. 4, fully 10 days after the deal was struck and with the 2006 election campaign in full swing, Harper was asked point-blank if the Conservative party had agreed to pay off Riddell as part of a backroom deal to clear the way for Cutler, the famous whistleblower. "In fact, there is no agreement and he hasn't been paid anything," Harper told reporters.

If Harper was misinformed, he stayed that way for the rest of the day. He was later asked the same question again.

"The party does not have an agreement to pay Mr. Riddell these expenses, and Mr. Riddell has not been paid anything to date," Harper replied.

The courts ultimately found that Riddell absolutely had a deal, and ordered the Conservatives to pay up.

Riddell also sued Harper and others for libel, and the case was settled out of court this past November, three months before it was due to go to trial.

Both sides agreed to say nothing.

- Greg Weston writes for Sun Media/Osprey Media.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Canadian Outlook: Another Fall Coming For Canada

Some commentary on Canadian oil and gas activity dropping and why.

http://www.worldoil.com/Magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=3442&MONTH_YEAR=Feb-2008

"World Oil" Cautiously Points to Peak Oil

Definitely worth a read, the main editorial

http://www.worldoil.com/Magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=3449&MONTH_YEAR=Feb-2008

followed by the feature article by Matt Simmons:

http://www.worldoil.com/Magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=3432&MONTH_YEAR=Feb-2008

Warren Buffet on peak oil

Peak oil is slowly going mainstream:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3697

Paul Ziff: The Roots And Future Risks Of Alberta's Gas Recession

Many people talk about an 'oil and gas' industry in Canada - the truth is that the conventional industry is mainly gas now --- the main oil is Oil Sands! Since 1998 gas drilling has surpassed oil drilling activity, with more than two gas wells for each oil well in 2007. Drilling for natural gas, not oil, drives the massive service industry, which stretches all across Alberta, especially rural towns. Figure 1 shows the dominance of gas drilling over the past decade.

Full article here

Chevron Replaced About 11% Of 2007 Production

YIKES! I think this is more symptomatic of the lack of large scale investment opportunities in energy than a "Chevron problem". I note Chevron isn't alone in replacing production. That is all a long-winded way of saying we might be at "peak oil".

(Reuters) - Integrated oil and gas company Chevron Corp. replaced only about 11% of the oil and gas it produced in 2007, as its total reserves slipped about seven per cent year over year.

The company's net proved oil and gas reserves, including affiliate companies, fell to 10.77 billion bbls of oil equivalent at the end of 2007, down from 11.62 billion bbls of oil equivalent at the end of 2006. The company reported the figure in its annual report with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday.

That means the company only added around 103 million bbls of oil and gas reserves through exploration or acquisitions in 2007. Based on total production in 2007 of around 946 million bbls of oil, that means the company has a reserve replacement rate of about 11%. Industry analysts typically expect oil and gas companies to replace more than 100% of their annual production as a sign that they are growing.

On the company's fourth-quarter earnings conference call, Chevron had said the company's reserve replacement rate would be in the 10% to 15% range.

Oil Tops Inflation-Adjusted Record Set in 1980











Capping a relentless rise in recent years, oil prices hit a record high during the day on Monday, then pulled back to close below the record.

More here