Quite a ramp up in worldwide production over the last few months, much to everyone's surprise. 85.26mmboe/d according to EIA.
Article is here
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Former CEO of Talisman Energy: Peak oil is 'here or hereabouts'
From ABC Radio, via Energy Bulletin
MARK COLVIN: Meanwhile, 'peak oil' - the idea that the world's supplies of oil have either peaked or will soon start declining, has suddenly gained new respectability. It's been derided by the big oil companies for years, but at the end of last week came a turnabout. The Chief Executive of the oil giant Royal Dutch Shell, Jeroen van der Veer put out a paper on Friday forecasting the end of easy oil. Mr Van der Veer said the result could be a worldwide scramble to mitigate climate change.
Dr Jim Buckee has just retired as President and CEO of Talisman Energy, a major independent Canadian oil company with a market capitalisation of $25-billion. On the phone from Perth, Dr Buckee told me that 'peak oil' was now either here, or very close.
JIM BUCKEE: It is the underlying decline of the world's major fields that is the dominant driving factor here. If you think that at the moment the world is consuming 30-plus billion barrels a year of oil and is finding seven or eight billion barrels a year. And this state of affairs has been going on now for 20 or more years. It's obviously unsustainable and the world is increasingly drawing on the bigger older fields. You couple that notion with the irreversibility of decline and you've got a very alarming picture.
MARK COLVIN: Now this was a very unfashionable notion among the oil companies until pretty recently. But just last week the Chief Executive of Shell came out and said that easy oil was coming to an end. Did that surprise you?
JIM BUCKEE: I think it was only a matter of time before one of them had to say that and the pronouncements of the majors are inscrutable at best and I believe they often have a very political overturn.
MARK COLVIN: What are the politics there?
JIM BUCKEE: I think it's pretty alarmist if one or more of the worlds largest oil companies say, listen guys, supplies of oil are gonna get tight. The ramifications are immense.
Always the line of the major oil companies, Exxon, Shell, BP has been, 'there's plenty of oil, you know technology will overcome shortages; we'll find it'.
They changed a little bit to, 'there's plenty of oil, but access is difficult' and then this is a change again saying, 'well actually, it looks like it's finite and you know we're looking over the hill'.
MARK COLVIN: Global warming has brought a worldwide debate as to what to do about it, centring around, whether there should be a carbon tax or cap in trade. Is this peak oil going to just force everybody's hand anyway because the oil will run out?
JIM BUCKEE: Oil running out is sort of wrong terminology. It will continue to produce in large quantities, but increasingly less quantities at higher prices. So we'll still be using a lot of oil in 20 or 30 years time, but it'll be rationed by price to the most essential uses of oil and that's generally transportation.
MARK COLVIN: So we won't be able to make plastic bottles out of it to put water in?
JIM BUCKEE: Well…quite right.
And in passing of course we pay more for water than we do for petrol at the moment, which is insane. But that sort of thing will rectify.
So another point here is that the amount of carbon generated by hydrocarbons will be nowhere near that envisaged in e.g. the Stern report.
MARK COLVIN: How high can oil go now?
JIM BUCKEE: I don't think that really we've seen any rationing of consumption by price. We did see it in '79, '80 and that was largely because of the sudden quadrupling of the price of oil. Now we've seen a relatively gentle approach and people have accommodated it.
So I would say you need to see oil in the $150, $200 a barrel range before it would have any particular impact on demand.
MARK COLVIN: When do you think we'll reach that?
JIM BUCKEE: The situation is always very tight in the fourth quarter because Northern Hemisphere demand increases; it's the sort of highest quarter for demands. So I'd say we'll see stress again in the third and fourth quarter of ‘08.
MARK COLVIN: Do you think it'll get to $150, 200 by then?
JIM BUCKEE: I think that's the number that's required to ration demand and I'd say so yes.
MARK COLVIN: That's really racing up on us.
JIM BUCKEE: Well I think the whole situation it's here. It's snuck up on us without any people really paying attention to it. And it's very important. I mean things like layouts of cities and future plans all have to take this sort of thing into account.
I mean if you look at a city like Los Angeles, if the supply of gasoline became tight, it'd be a big problem; how to run Los Angeles and the same problem, smaller in lots of other places. Where you have work at point A, residence at point B, shops at point C and they're all miles apart.
MARK COLVIN: You'd have to include most of Australia's big cities in that wouldn't you?
JIM BUCKEE: Yes I think so. But I mean Perth isn't quite there yet I don't think but yes in general it ignores the distances, yes.
MARK COLVIN: Dr Jim Buckee, former president and CEO of the Big Canadian independent oil company Talisman Energy, on the phone from Perth.
MARK COLVIN: Meanwhile, 'peak oil' - the idea that the world's supplies of oil have either peaked or will soon start declining, has suddenly gained new respectability. It's been derided by the big oil companies for years, but at the end of last week came a turnabout. The Chief Executive of the oil giant Royal Dutch Shell, Jeroen van der Veer put out a paper on Friday forecasting the end of easy oil. Mr Van der Veer said the result could be a worldwide scramble to mitigate climate change.
Dr Jim Buckee has just retired as President and CEO of Talisman Energy, a major independent Canadian oil company with a market capitalisation of $25-billion. On the phone from Perth, Dr Buckee told me that 'peak oil' was now either here, or very close.
JIM BUCKEE: It is the underlying decline of the world's major fields that is the dominant driving factor here. If you think that at the moment the world is consuming 30-plus billion barrels a year of oil and is finding seven or eight billion barrels a year. And this state of affairs has been going on now for 20 or more years. It's obviously unsustainable and the world is increasingly drawing on the bigger older fields. You couple that notion with the irreversibility of decline and you've got a very alarming picture.
MARK COLVIN: Now this was a very unfashionable notion among the oil companies until pretty recently. But just last week the Chief Executive of Shell came out and said that easy oil was coming to an end. Did that surprise you?
JIM BUCKEE: I think it was only a matter of time before one of them had to say that and the pronouncements of the majors are inscrutable at best and I believe they often have a very political overturn.
MARK COLVIN: What are the politics there?
JIM BUCKEE: I think it's pretty alarmist if one or more of the worlds largest oil companies say, listen guys, supplies of oil are gonna get tight. The ramifications are immense.
Always the line of the major oil companies, Exxon, Shell, BP has been, 'there's plenty of oil, you know technology will overcome shortages; we'll find it'.
They changed a little bit to, 'there's plenty of oil, but access is difficult' and then this is a change again saying, 'well actually, it looks like it's finite and you know we're looking over the hill'.
MARK COLVIN: Global warming has brought a worldwide debate as to what to do about it, centring around, whether there should be a carbon tax or cap in trade. Is this peak oil going to just force everybody's hand anyway because the oil will run out?
JIM BUCKEE: Oil running out is sort of wrong terminology. It will continue to produce in large quantities, but increasingly less quantities at higher prices. So we'll still be using a lot of oil in 20 or 30 years time, but it'll be rationed by price to the most essential uses of oil and that's generally transportation.
MARK COLVIN: So we won't be able to make plastic bottles out of it to put water in?
JIM BUCKEE: Well…quite right.
And in passing of course we pay more for water than we do for petrol at the moment, which is insane. But that sort of thing will rectify.
So another point here is that the amount of carbon generated by hydrocarbons will be nowhere near that envisaged in e.g. the Stern report.
MARK COLVIN: How high can oil go now?
JIM BUCKEE: I don't think that really we've seen any rationing of consumption by price. We did see it in '79, '80 and that was largely because of the sudden quadrupling of the price of oil. Now we've seen a relatively gentle approach and people have accommodated it.
So I would say you need to see oil in the $150, $200 a barrel range before it would have any particular impact on demand.
MARK COLVIN: When do you think we'll reach that?
JIM BUCKEE: The situation is always very tight in the fourth quarter because Northern Hemisphere demand increases; it's the sort of highest quarter for demands. So I'd say we'll see stress again in the third and fourth quarter of ‘08.
MARK COLVIN: Do you think it'll get to $150, 200 by then?
JIM BUCKEE: I think that's the number that's required to ration demand and I'd say so yes.
MARK COLVIN: That's really racing up on us.
JIM BUCKEE: Well I think the whole situation it's here. It's snuck up on us without any people really paying attention to it. And it's very important. I mean things like layouts of cities and future plans all have to take this sort of thing into account.
I mean if you look at a city like Los Angeles, if the supply of gasoline became tight, it'd be a big problem; how to run Los Angeles and the same problem, smaller in lots of other places. Where you have work at point A, residence at point B, shops at point C and they're all miles apart.
MARK COLVIN: You'd have to include most of Australia's big cities in that wouldn't you?
JIM BUCKEE: Yes I think so. But I mean Perth isn't quite there yet I don't think but yes in general it ignores the distances, yes.
MARK COLVIN: Dr Jim Buckee, former president and CEO of the Big Canadian independent oil company Talisman Energy, on the phone from Perth.
Russian scientist says Earth could soon face new Ice Age
14:31 22/ 01/ 2008
ST. PETERSBURG, January 22 (RIA Novosti) - Temperatures on Earth have stabilized in the past decade, and the planet should brace itself for a new Ice Age rather than global warming, a Russian scientist said in an interview with RIA Novosti Tuesday.
"Russian and foreign research data confirm that global temperatures in 2007 were practically similar to those in 2006, and, in general, identical to 1998-2006 temperatures, which, basically, means that the Earth passed the peak of global warming in 1998-2005," said Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of a space research lab at the Pulkovo observatory in St. Petersburg.
According to the scientist, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has risen more than 4% in the past decade, but global warming has practically stopped. It confirms the theory of "solar" impact on changes in the Earth's climate, because the amount of solar energy reaching the planet has drastically decreased during the same period, the scientist said.
Had global temperatures directly responded to concentrations of "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere, they would have risen by at least 0.1 Celsius in the past ten years, however, it never happened, he said.
"A year ago, many meteorologists predicted that higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would make the year 2007 the hottest in the last decade, but, fortunately, these predictions did not become reality," Abdusamatov said.
He also said that in 2008, global temperatures would drop slightly, rather than rise, due to unprecedentedly low solar radiation in the past 30 years, and would continue decreasing even if industrial emissions of carbon dioxide reach record levels.
By 2041, solar activity will reach its minimum according to a 200-year cycle, and a deep cooling period will hit the Earth approximately in 2055-2060. It will last for about 45-65 years, the scientist added.
"By the mid-21st century the planet will face another Little Ice Age, similar to the Maunder Minimum, because the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth has been constantly decreasing since the 1990s and will reach its minimum approximately in 2041," he said.
The Maunder Minimum occurred between 1645 and 1715, when only about 50 spots appeared on the Sun, as opposed to the typical 40,000-50,000 spots.
It coincided with the middle and coldest part of the so called Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters.
"However, the thermal inertia of the world's oceans and seas will delay a 'deep cooling' of the planet, and the new Ice Age will begin sometime during 2055-2060, probably lasting for several decades," Abdusamatov said.
Therefore, the Earth must brace itself for a growing ice cap, rather than rising waters in global oceans caused by ice melting.
Mankind will face serious economic, social, and demographic consequences of the coming Ice Age because it will directly affect more than 80% of the earth's population, the scientist concluded.
ST. PETERSBURG, January 22 (RIA Novosti) - Temperatures on Earth have stabilized in the past decade, and the planet should brace itself for a new Ice Age rather than global warming, a Russian scientist said in an interview with RIA Novosti Tuesday.
"Russian and foreign research data confirm that global temperatures in 2007 were practically similar to those in 2006, and, in general, identical to 1998-2006 temperatures, which, basically, means that the Earth passed the peak of global warming in 1998-2005," said Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of a space research lab at the Pulkovo observatory in St. Petersburg.
According to the scientist, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has risen more than 4% in the past decade, but global warming has practically stopped. It confirms the theory of "solar" impact on changes in the Earth's climate, because the amount of solar energy reaching the planet has drastically decreased during the same period, the scientist said.
Had global temperatures directly responded to concentrations of "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere, they would have risen by at least 0.1 Celsius in the past ten years, however, it never happened, he said.
"A year ago, many meteorologists predicted that higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would make the year 2007 the hottest in the last decade, but, fortunately, these predictions did not become reality," Abdusamatov said.
He also said that in 2008, global temperatures would drop slightly, rather than rise, due to unprecedentedly low solar radiation in the past 30 years, and would continue decreasing even if industrial emissions of carbon dioxide reach record levels.
By 2041, solar activity will reach its minimum according to a 200-year cycle, and a deep cooling period will hit the Earth approximately in 2055-2060. It will last for about 45-65 years, the scientist added.
"By the mid-21st century the planet will face another Little Ice Age, similar to the Maunder Minimum, because the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth has been constantly decreasing since the 1990s and will reach its minimum approximately in 2041," he said.
The Maunder Minimum occurred between 1645 and 1715, when only about 50 spots appeared on the Sun, as opposed to the typical 40,000-50,000 spots.
It coincided with the middle and coldest part of the so called Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters.
"However, the thermal inertia of the world's oceans and seas will delay a 'deep cooling' of the planet, and the new Ice Age will begin sometime during 2055-2060, probably lasting for several decades," Abdusamatov said.
Therefore, the Earth must brace itself for a growing ice cap, rather than rising waters in global oceans caused by ice melting.
Mankind will face serious economic, social, and demographic consequences of the coming Ice Age because it will directly affect more than 80% of the earth's population, the scientist concluded.
Bizarre DNA Property
Genetic 'telepathy'? A bizarre new property of DNA
Scientists are reporting evidence that intact, double-stranded DNA has the “amazing” ability to recognize similarities in other DNA strands from a distance. And then like friends with similar interests, the bits of genetic material hangout or congregate together. The recognition — of similar sequences in DNA’s chemical subunits — occurs in a way once regarded as impossible, the researchers suggest in a study scheduled for the Jan. 31 issue of ACS’ Journal of Physical Chemistry B.
Full story here
Thursday, January 24, 2008
The Coldest Winter for Many Years
So much for global warming! Amazing we are not hearing about this in the mainstream media. Click here for full story. Excerpt below:
In the beginning of December it came to my attention that the coming Winter might be colder than usual, during the previous month the Arctic Sea Ice area grew by almost 4 million Km2, the fastest build up ever recorded. Although still 1 million Km2 below the reference average, it meant a significant temperature drop in the Arctic. During the following days temperatures in Europe drop enough to set new energy consumption records in France and Spain. December of 2007 turned out to be the coldest month since 2000.
This colder than usual winter had already been forecast by some meteorologic agencies, but in the beginning of January an extremely acute forecast by the polemic meteorologist Piers Corbyn warned of abnormally cold temperatures for central Europe. As the month draws to a close, it is clear that such forecast was correct for everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere but central Europe.
During the first week of January temperatures as low as -15ºC were felt in Greece and Bulgaria. Some days later bitter cold and snow storms reached Central Asia with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan being affected first. At latitudes under 40º, some places of Iran recorded temperatures of -25ºC. This would result in a series of Natural Gas supply cuts that would cascade as far as Greece, as reported earlier by Heading Out.
On the 11h of January it snowed in centre Baghdad, something that probably never happened during the XX century; during the same day it would snow in the north of Saudi Arabia. This abnormal weather has perdured across Central Asia; in Afghanistan more than 300 people have already died by cold or in consequence of avalanches.
Chinese prepare for US car market invasion
Remember how the Japanese imports really hammered the US auto industry.
That was probably a mild preview of what is coming.
Bright and enterprising individuals wanting to participate in auto marketing should be trying to line up distributorships. Imagine if you'd have gotten the Toyota or Honda rights to a big geographic area in 1970......
That was probably a mild preview of what is coming.
Bright and enterprising individuals wanting to participate in auto marketing should be trying to line up distributorships. Imagine if you'd have gotten the Toyota or Honda rights to a big geographic area in 1970......
Chinese prepare for US car market invasion
Jan 15, 2008
DETROIT, Michigan (AFP) — Chinese automakers are actively preparing for entry into the US car market, the biggest in the world, in a move that has not gone unnoticed by American and Japanese rivals.
With a record presence at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Michigan this year, China has made a splash with four manufacturers -- Geely, BYD, Changfeng, Li Shi Guangming -- and a distributor, Chamco.
Admittedly, the Chinese debutantes have only modest visibility, with three of them sharing space for their prototypes and equipment in the basement, while two others are located in the entry area of the exhibit hall.
Nevertheless, news conferences by Changfeng, BYD and Geely have drawn packed crowds, even as no straight answer has been given to burning queries: when will Chinese cars debut in the United States? which kinds? how many?
Chamco aims to become by the end of 2008 the premier importer of made-in-China cars to the United States, Mexico and Canada.
A spokesman for Geely, the largest private manufacturer of Chinese cars, said the nuts and bolts of its US market entry are under wraps because "at this stage it's very strategic, so we don't go into these details."
Changfeng aims for its splash between now and 2009.
"It's important for us to develop quickly, but in the US, we take our time," a Changfeng spokesman said.
Henry Li, a BYD company official, said its aim is to first "learn from the US manufacturers ... try to get some market feedback ... talk to a lot of people, dealers, analysts, distributors."
When it comes to vehicles, the Chinese are focusing on clean technology, despite detractors who criticize economy models on the basis that they don't fit in with American tastes for top-of-the-line, big and fast luxury cars.
Changfeng is presenting fuel efficient 4x4s, BYD boasts clean technology with "classic" hybrids and hybrids with a 100 percent electric option, while Chamco dreams of importing 4x4s and pickup trucks.
The Chinese carmakers' ambitions are met by US market stalwarts with a touch of condescension, mingled with admiration.
Rick Wagoner, the CEO of General Motors, brushed aside the possibility of any imminent Chinese arrival on the US market, estimating that serious Chinese competition would not come until the next five to 10 years because the Chinese market is currently too fragmented, with more than 300 manufacturers.
"If they get 100 Chinese domestically owned manufacturers exporting, that is not going to work for anybody," Wagoner said.
In addition, the Chinese must be sure to fully comply with US safety and security standards, according to Wagoner, a point which Chamco insists it is in the process of assuring by obtaining certifications on its imports.
"The Chinese are very good at learning from the past so they will know that when the Japanese came in, it took a long time to repair from the (problems with) the initial entry," Wagoner said.
John Mendel, vice president of Honda North America, said a degree of mimicry is likely to be seen in the early Chinese models.
"They're very good in developing copies," Mendel said. "I think it's a quick way to get credibility, as they know the new entrants always suffer from a notoriety deficit."
Another important barrier to market entry is distribution networks, a point on which these outsider manufacturer have remained tight-lipped.
"Distribution is the key," said Tan Mingan, who heads an association for the promotion of Chinese businesses in Detroit.
"There are a multiplicity of Chinese automakers who are willing to compete in the US. The quality and security standards is just a step. But having a distribution partner, this is a crucial point in the strategy, and how you can succeed or not to enter the market."
Supersonic Cruise Missles
Supersonic cruise missile technology has possibly made the US Navy's capital ships obsolete. A report on the latest Russian version is below:
Russian Navy uses supersonic cruise missile to hit test target
MOSCOW, January 22 (RIA Novosti) - The flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet has effectively engaged a designated target with a supersonic cruise missile as part of a Navy exercise in the northern Atlantic, a Navy spokesman said Tuesday.
The Moskva guided-missile cruiser launched the P-500 Bazalt (NATO reporting name SS-N-12 Sandbox), a liquid-propellant supersonic cruise missile, last used in 2003.
The P-500 Bazalt, which entered service in 1973, has a 550 km range and a payload of 1,000 kg, enabling it to carry a 350 kT nuclear or a 950kg semi-armor-piercing high explosive warhead.
A Joint Naval Task Force, comprising the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, the Udaloy-Class destroyers Admiral Levchenko and Admiral Chabanenko, as well as auxiliary vessels, is currently on a two-month tour of duty in the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic.
"The missile system used for launches has no match in performance terms," Capt. 1st Rank Igor Dygalo, an aide to the Navy commander, said Monday.
Russian warships will also practice interoperability with naval aviation and strategic bombers for several days.
The operation is the first large-scale Russian Navy exercise in the Atlantic for 15 years. All the warships and aircraft involved are carrying full combat ammunition loads, the Navy said.
Vice-Admiral Nikolai Maksimov, commander of Russia's Northern Fleet who is heading the task force, earlier said that the current tour of duty to the Mediterranean, which started on December 5, was aimed at ensuring Russia's naval presence "in key operational areas of the world's oceans" and establishing conditions for secure Russian maritime navigation.
Dwarves zipped in suitcases steal from Swedes
From the "shit you couldn't make up" file:
Dwarves zipped in suitcases steal from Swedes
By Lucy Cockcroft
Last Updated: 2:07pm GMT 24/01/2008
Criminal gangs are using dwarves in a ruse to steal from the luggage holds of long-distance coaches, by hiding them inside suitcases, according to police.
The bizarre crime is on the rise in Sweden and officers say thieves have got away with thousands of pounds in cash, jewellery and other valuables in recent months.
Gangs are said to sneak the dwarves into the luggage hold, hidden inside baggage.
Then, once the journey has begun, the stowaways are free to rifle through the bags of other passengers without fear of being apprehended.
Before the coach arrives at its destination the dwarves take their loot back into their suitcase, zip themselves inside and wait to be collected by their partners in crime.
Swebus, which takes thousands of British tourists on holiday across Sweden, is among the coach firms targeted.
A spokesman said: “We have had reports about several thefts by dwarves on the stretch between Vasteras and Stockholm.
“We’re thinking of installing video cameras.”
Police in Stockholm have warned the scam is becoming a problem.
A spokesman said: “We are looking at our records to identify criminals of limited stature.”
Criminal dwarves have often been featured in books, film and folklore.
The Artemis Fowl book series by Irish fiction author Eoin Colfer has a character called Mulch Diggums, a kleptomaniac dwarf.
And in the Austin Powers spoof spy movies Dr Evil’s equally villainous side-kick is a dwarf named Mini-Me.
Dwarves zipped in suitcases steal from Swedes
By Lucy Cockcroft
Last Updated: 2:07pm GMT 24/01/2008
Criminal gangs are using dwarves in a ruse to steal from the luggage holds of long-distance coaches, by hiding them inside suitcases, according to police.
The bizarre crime is on the rise in Sweden and officers say thieves have got away with thousands of pounds in cash, jewellery and other valuables in recent months.
Gangs are said to sneak the dwarves into the luggage hold, hidden inside baggage.
Then, once the journey has begun, the stowaways are free to rifle through the bags of other passengers without fear of being apprehended.
Before the coach arrives at its destination the dwarves take their loot back into their suitcase, zip themselves inside and wait to be collected by their partners in crime.
Swebus, which takes thousands of British tourists on holiday across Sweden, is among the coach firms targeted.
A spokesman said: “We have had reports about several thefts by dwarves on the stretch between Vasteras and Stockholm.
“We’re thinking of installing video cameras.”
Police in Stockholm have warned the scam is becoming a problem.
A spokesman said: “We are looking at our records to identify criminals of limited stature.”
Criminal dwarves have often been featured in books, film and folklore.
The Artemis Fowl book series by Irish fiction author Eoin Colfer has a character called Mulch Diggums, a kleptomaniac dwarf.
And in the Austin Powers spoof spy movies Dr Evil’s equally villainous side-kick is a dwarf named Mini-Me.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Updates from China
Energy crisis is hitting China badly.
Whole story is here, extract below:
and this story too is interesting; extract below:
Whole story is here, extract below:
Record Power Shortage Hits China
BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) - China is facing its most severe power shortage ever as some plants struggle to secure increasingly costly coal and others shut down capacity rather than rack up losses by selling electricity at low rates.
The rebellion by power plant managers unwilling to generate at a loss is likely to worry policymakers still haunted by the nationwide diesel supply crisis last autumn, when refiners under similar pressure quietly curbed output and forced the government to make an unplanned and unwanted rise in fuel prices.
and this story too is interesting; extract below:
In a snow-covered China, entire regions are without electricity and gas
The energy shortfall has reached 70 gigawatts, equal to the production of all of Great Britain. There is a shortage of coal because of the closure of many non-compliant mines and the imposition of price caps. The snow is blocking the roads and preventing fuel delivery. The cold is also impacting water and gas suppliers.
Drought could force nuke-plant shutdowns
I'd never heard of water shortages affecting the ability to run nuclear plants. Wow.
Full article here, extract below:
Full article here, extract below:
LAKE NORMAN, N.C. - Nuclear reactors across the Southeast could be forced to throttle back or temporarily shut down later this year because drought is drying up the rivers and lakes that supply power plants with the awesome amounts of cooling water they need to operate.
Utility officials say such shutdowns probably wouldn't result in blackouts. But they could lead to shockingly higher electric bills for millions of Southerners, because the region's utilities could be forced to buy expensive replacement power from other energy companies.
Already, there has been one brief, drought-related shutdown, at a reactor in Alabama over the summer.
"Water is the nuclear industry's Achilles' heel," said Jim Warren, executive director of N.C. Waste Awareness and Reduction Network, an environmental group critical of nuclear power. "You need a lot of water to operate nuclear plants." He added: "This is becoming a crisis."
Development Cost Issues
Worldwide there is extreme cost inflation to undertake energy projects. Increased costs in Alberta were not entirely due to the unprecidented activity levels.
A good example of capital cost inflation is quoted below:
Note an additional point of interest is that the LNG that is projected to crush the domestic North American gas markets will be high cost developments.
A good example of capital cost inflation is quoted below:
Total Says "Huge Cost Issues" On Iran LNG Project
Dubai (Reuters) - France's Total said Tuesday it is facing "huge cost issues" on its Iran liquefied natural gas project and is reviewing plans with the Iranian government.
"We are restudying the project. We are facing huge cost issues," Philippe Boisseau, president of gas and power at Total, told Reuters. "We are reviewing the project with the Iranian government and it could take some time."
He declined to give an estimate on the latest cost of the project or say when Total might make an investment decision.
Note an additional point of interest is that the LNG that is projected to crush the domestic North American gas markets will be high cost developments.
Oilfield Equipment Moving South
Post Royalty Review, capital, capital resources and jobs are moving out of Alberta as predicted by industry observers. A good example came out today:
Western Expands In U.S.
Western Energy Services Corp. has completed a purchase of nitrogen pumping and transport equipment that will increase the size of its U.S. based nitrogen fleet by 50%.
The purchase will be debt financed using facilities made available to the company from its U.S. based commercial bank.
"The current distressed market for oilfield services in Canada is a significant opportunity to acquire quality equipment at a fraction of what we would have paid to have it built," said Jim McQuarrie, president & CEO. "This equipment will be immediately deployed to our new operations centre in Ashdown, Arkansas."
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Bond Insurer Going Down
See chart:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AMBAC&time=&freq=
and some perspective from this video
and article below. This is bad stuff.
Ambac Looks at ‘Alternatives’ After $3.26 Billion Loss
By MICHAEL J. de la MERCED
Published: January 23, 2008
The Ambac Financial Group, one of the largest companies that insures against bond losses, said Tuesday that it was exploring “strategic alternatives” as it announced a $3.26 billion loss for its fourth quarter.
Ambac’s shares surged more than 28 percent on the disclosure that it was in talks with “potential parties.” In Wall Street’s parlance, strategic alternatives mean, among other things, a potential sale or outside investment. Either would help ease concerns that Ambac lacks enough capital to pay claims.
Driving the company’s loss, which amounts to $31.85 a share, was a $5.21 billion write-down on its portfolio of credit derivatives. About $1.11 billion was tied to financial instruments backed by subprime mortgages.
The news reflects the continued woes of Ambac and others in the bond insurance industry. On Friday, after abandoning a plan to raise $1 billion in new capital, the company lost its most valuable asset: a AAA credit rating that allowed it to guarantee lower-rated debt.
That move by Fitch Ratings — and the threat of further downgrades by the other two major ratings agencies, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service — capped a week in which Ambac lost nearly three-fourths of its market value. Last Wednesday, Ambac ousted its chief executive and said it would cut its stock dividend by 67 percent.
“We view the current perceptions of Ambac’s business by both the market and ratings agencies as underestimating Ambac’s strengths and future potential,” Michael A. Callen, the company’s new chairman and interim chief executive, said in a statement. “As the market normalizes and perceptions correspond more closely to reality, the market will more accurately assess our assets and strengths.”
A sale or investment offers no guarantee of salvation, however. Last month, MBIA, Ambac’s biggest rival, sold a $1 billion stake to the private equity firm Warburg Pincus. Even after that deal was announced, the company’s shares slid another 73 percent. (MBIA shares rose 47 percent on Tuesday, largely because of a Barron’s article arguing that the company is in better financial health than Ambac.)
Until a few months ago, bond insurance was a little-known industry that guaranteed staid municipal bonds from default. The service allowed state and local governments to issue bonds to raise money in the capital markets at lower cost.
But companies like Ambac, moving far beyond their original mission, also insured hundreds of billions of dollars in debt tied to risky subprime home loans. As the market for those loans collapsed, the companies found themselves facing steep losses.
The pain suffered by Ambac and other insurers has spread far beyond the industry. State and local government bonds insured by the company have already dropped in value. Those governments may also find it more expensive to issue new debt.
Financial giants like Merrill Lynch and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce have also felt the ripples from Ambac’s troubles. Subprime-backed bonds issued by those firms and insured by Ambac have dropped in value, raising the prospect of even steeper losses for those banks.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AMBAC&time=&freq=
and some perspective from this video
and article below. This is bad stuff.
Ambac Looks at ‘Alternatives’ After $3.26 Billion Loss
By MICHAEL J. de la MERCED
Published: January 23, 2008
The Ambac Financial Group, one of the largest companies that insures against bond losses, said Tuesday that it was exploring “strategic alternatives” as it announced a $3.26 billion loss for its fourth quarter.
Ambac’s shares surged more than 28 percent on the disclosure that it was in talks with “potential parties.” In Wall Street’s parlance, strategic alternatives mean, among other things, a potential sale or outside investment. Either would help ease concerns that Ambac lacks enough capital to pay claims.
Driving the company’s loss, which amounts to $31.85 a share, was a $5.21 billion write-down on its portfolio of credit derivatives. About $1.11 billion was tied to financial instruments backed by subprime mortgages.
The news reflects the continued woes of Ambac and others in the bond insurance industry. On Friday, after abandoning a plan to raise $1 billion in new capital, the company lost its most valuable asset: a AAA credit rating that allowed it to guarantee lower-rated debt.
That move by Fitch Ratings — and the threat of further downgrades by the other two major ratings agencies, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service — capped a week in which Ambac lost nearly three-fourths of its market value. Last Wednesday, Ambac ousted its chief executive and said it would cut its stock dividend by 67 percent.
“We view the current perceptions of Ambac’s business by both the market and ratings agencies as underestimating Ambac’s strengths and future potential,” Michael A. Callen, the company’s new chairman and interim chief executive, said in a statement. “As the market normalizes and perceptions correspond more closely to reality, the market will more accurately assess our assets and strengths.”
A sale or investment offers no guarantee of salvation, however. Last month, MBIA, Ambac’s biggest rival, sold a $1 billion stake to the private equity firm Warburg Pincus. Even after that deal was announced, the company’s shares slid another 73 percent. (MBIA shares rose 47 percent on Tuesday, largely because of a Barron’s article arguing that the company is in better financial health than Ambac.)
Until a few months ago, bond insurance was a little-known industry that guaranteed staid municipal bonds from default. The service allowed state and local governments to issue bonds to raise money in the capital markets at lower cost.
But companies like Ambac, moving far beyond their original mission, also insured hundreds of billions of dollars in debt tied to risky subprime home loans. As the market for those loans collapsed, the companies found themselves facing steep losses.
The pain suffered by Ambac and other insurers has spread far beyond the industry. State and local government bonds insured by the company have already dropped in value. Those governments may also find it more expensive to issue new debt.
Financial giants like Merrill Lynch and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce have also felt the ripples from Ambac’s troubles. Subprime-backed bonds issued by those firms and insured by Ambac have dropped in value, raising the prospect of even steeper losses for those banks.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Burning biofuels may be worse than coal and oil, say experts
· Scientists point to cost in biodiversity and farmland
· Razing tropical forests 'will increase carbon'
Alok Jha, science correspondent
This article appeared in the Guardian on Friday January 04 2008 on p12 of the UK news section. It was last updated at 09:53 on January 04 2008.
Using biofuels made from corn, sugar cane and soy could have a greater environmental impact than burning fossil fuels, according to experts. Although the fuels themselves emit fewer greenhouse gases, they all have higher costs in terms of biodiversity loss and destruction of farmland.
The problems of climate change and the rising cost of oil have led to a race to develop environmentally-friendly biofuels, such as palm oil or ethanol derived from corn and sugar cane. The EU has proposed that 10% of all fuel used in transport should come from biofuels by 2020 and the emerging global market is expected to be worth billions of dollars a year.
But the new fuels have attracted controversy. "Regardless of how effective sugar cane is for producing ethanol, its benefits quickly diminish if carbon-rich tropical forests are being razed to make the sugar cane fields, thereby causing vast greenhouse-gas emission increases," Jörn Scharlemann and William Laurance, of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama, write in Science today.
"Such comparisons become even more lopsided if the full environmental benefits of tropical forests - for example, for biodiversity conservation, hydrological functioning, and soil protection - are included."
Efforts to work out which crops are most environmentally friendly have, until now, focused only on the amount of greenhouse gases a fuel emits when it is burned. Scharlemann and Laurance highlighted a more comprehensive method, developed by Rainer Zah of the Empa Research Institute in Switzerland, that can take total environmental impacts - such as loss of forests and farmland and effects on biodiversity - into account.
In a study of 26 biofuels the Swiss method showed that 21 fuels reduced greenhouse-gas emissions by more than 30% compared with gasoline when burned. But almost half of the biofuels, a total of 12, had greater total environmental impacts than fossil fuels. These included economically-significant fuels such as US corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol and soy diesel, and Malaysian palm-oil diesel. Biofuels that fared best were those produced from waste products such as recycled cooking oil, as well as ethanol from grass or wood.
Scharlemann and Laurance also pointed to "perverse" government initiatives that had resulted in unintended environmental impacts. In the US, for example, farmers have been offered incentives to shift from growing soy to growing corn for biofuels. "This is helping to drive up global soy prices, which in turn amplifies economic incentives to destroy Amazonian forests and Brazilian tropical savannas for soy production."
They added: "The findings highlight the enormous differences in costs and benefits among different biofuels. There is a clear need to consider more than just energy and greenhouse gas emissions when evaluating different biofuels and to pursue new biofuel crops and technologies."
Andy Tait, campaign manager at Greenpeace, said: "We're already bought into mandatory targets for the use of biofuels with very little thought of what the environmental impacts will be. This study further confirms that there are serious risks associated with first generation biofuels, particularly from corn, soya and palm oil."
He said that the biofuel technology had been oversold by industry and politicians. "It's clear that what government and industry are trying to do is find a neat, drop-in solution that allows people to continue business as usual.
"If you're looking at the emissions from the transport sector, the first thing you need to look at is fuel efficiency and massively increasing it. That needs to come before you even get to the point of discussing which biofuels might be good or bad."
· Razing tropical forests 'will increase carbon'
Alok Jha, science correspondent
This article appeared in the Guardian on Friday January 04 2008 on p12 of the UK news section. It was last updated at 09:53 on January 04 2008.
Using biofuels made from corn, sugar cane and soy could have a greater environmental impact than burning fossil fuels, according to experts. Although the fuels themselves emit fewer greenhouse gases, they all have higher costs in terms of biodiversity loss and destruction of farmland.
The problems of climate change and the rising cost of oil have led to a race to develop environmentally-friendly biofuels, such as palm oil or ethanol derived from corn and sugar cane. The EU has proposed that 10% of all fuel used in transport should come from biofuels by 2020 and the emerging global market is expected to be worth billions of dollars a year.
But the new fuels have attracted controversy. "Regardless of how effective sugar cane is for producing ethanol, its benefits quickly diminish if carbon-rich tropical forests are being razed to make the sugar cane fields, thereby causing vast greenhouse-gas emission increases," Jörn Scharlemann and William Laurance, of the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama, write in Science today.
"Such comparisons become even more lopsided if the full environmental benefits of tropical forests - for example, for biodiversity conservation, hydrological functioning, and soil protection - are included."
Efforts to work out which crops are most environmentally friendly have, until now, focused only on the amount of greenhouse gases a fuel emits when it is burned. Scharlemann and Laurance highlighted a more comprehensive method, developed by Rainer Zah of the Empa Research Institute in Switzerland, that can take total environmental impacts - such as loss of forests and farmland and effects on biodiversity - into account.
In a study of 26 biofuels the Swiss method showed that 21 fuels reduced greenhouse-gas emissions by more than 30% compared with gasoline when burned. But almost half of the biofuels, a total of 12, had greater total environmental impacts than fossil fuels. These included economically-significant fuels such as US corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol and soy diesel, and Malaysian palm-oil diesel. Biofuels that fared best were those produced from waste products such as recycled cooking oil, as well as ethanol from grass or wood.
Scharlemann and Laurance also pointed to "perverse" government initiatives that had resulted in unintended environmental impacts. In the US, for example, farmers have been offered incentives to shift from growing soy to growing corn for biofuels. "This is helping to drive up global soy prices, which in turn amplifies economic incentives to destroy Amazonian forests and Brazilian tropical savannas for soy production."
They added: "The findings highlight the enormous differences in costs and benefits among different biofuels. There is a clear need to consider more than just energy and greenhouse gas emissions when evaluating different biofuels and to pursue new biofuel crops and technologies."
Andy Tait, campaign manager at Greenpeace, said: "We're already bought into mandatory targets for the use of biofuels with very little thought of what the environmental impacts will be. This study further confirms that there are serious risks associated with first generation biofuels, particularly from corn, soya and palm oil."
He said that the biofuel technology had been oversold by industry and politicians. "It's clear that what government and industry are trying to do is find a neat, drop-in solution that allows people to continue business as usual.
"If you're looking at the emissions from the transport sector, the first thing you need to look at is fuel efficiency and massively increasing it. That needs to come before you even get to the point of discussing which biofuels might be good or bad."
Friday, January 11, 2008
Alberta Now Has Net Outflow of People to Other Provinces
The impact of bad decisions in Alberta, including the royalty review is starting to show:
More at http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071219/d071219b.htm
"the main engine of Alberta's demographic growth—interprovincial migration—has lost some of its importance. Alberta, which has led the provinces in population growth for the last few years, has started to lose more people to other regions than it has received.
Over the third quarter, Alberta recorded a net interprovincial migration outflow estimated at 3,300 people. The last time the province recorded a net outflow to other jurisdictions occurred in the fourth quarter of 1994."
More at http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071219/d071219b.htm
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Super Soaker Inventor Aims to Cut Solar Costs in Half
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/earth/4243793.html
Solar energy technology is enjoying its day in the sun with the advent of innovations from flexible photovoltaic (PV) materials to thermal power plants that concentrate the sun’s heat to drive turbines. But even the best system converts only about 30 percent of received solar energy into electricity—making solar more expensive than burning coal or oil. That will change if Lonnie Johnson’s invention works. The Atlanta-based independent inventor of the Super Soaker squirt gun (a true technological milestone) says he can achieve a conversion efficiency rate that tops 60 percent with a new solid-state heat engine. It represents a breakthrough new way to turn heat into power.
Johnson, a nuclear engineer who holds more than 100 patents, calls his invention the Johnson Thermoelectric Energy Conversion System, or JTEC for short. This is not PV technology, in which semiconducting silicon converts light into electricity. And unlike a Stirling engine, in which pistons are powered by the expansion and compression of a contained gas, there are no moving parts in the JTEC. It’s sort of like a fuel cell: JTEC circulates hydrogen between two membrane-electrode assemblies (MEA). Unlike a fuel cell, however, JTEC is a closed system. No external hydrogen source. No oxygen input. No wastewater output. Other than a jolt of electricity that acts like the ignition spark in an internal-combustion engine, the only input is heat.
Here’s how it works: One MEA stack is coupled to a high- temperature heat source (such as solar heat concentrated by mirrors), and the other to a low-temperature heat sink (ambient air). The low-temperature stack acts as the compressor stage while the high-temperature stack functions as the power stage. Once the cycle is started by the electrical jolt, the resulting pressure differential produces voltage across each of the MEA stacks. The higher voltage at the high-temperature stack forces the low-temperature stack to pump hydrogen from low pressure to high pressure, maintaining the pressure differential. Meanwhile hydrogen passing through the high-temperature stack generates power.
“It’s like a conventional heat engine,” explains Paul Werbos, program director at the National Science Foundation, which has provided funding for JTEC. “It still uses temperature differences to create pressure gradients. Only instead of using those pressure gradients to move an axle or wheel, he’s using them to force ions through a membrane. It’s a totally new way of generating electricity from heat.”
The bigger the temperature differential, the higher the efficiency. With the help of Heshmat Aglan, a professor of mechanical engineering at Alabama’s Tuskegee University, Johnson hopes to have a low-temperature prototype (200-degree centigrade) completed within a year’s time. The pair is experimenting with high-temperature membranes made of a novel ceramic material of micron-scale thickness. Johnson envisions a first-generation system capable of handling temperatures up to 600 degrees. (Currently, solar concentration using parabolic mirrors tops 800 degrees centigrade.) Based on the theoretical Carnot thermodynamic cycle, at 600 degrees efficiency rates approach 60 percent, twice those of today’s solar Stirling engines.
This engine, Johnson says, can operate on tiny scales, or generate megawatts of power. If it proves feasible, drastically reducing the cost of solar power would only be a start. JTEC could potentially harvest waste heat from internal combustion engines and combustion turbines, perhaps even the human body. And no moving parts means no friction and fewer mechanical failures.
As an engineer, Johnson says he has always been interested in energy conversion. In fact, it was while working on an idea for an environmentally friendly heat pump (one that would not require Freon) that he came up with the Super Soaker, which earned him millions of dollars in royalties. That money allowed Johnson to quit NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab (where he worked on the Galileo Mission, among other projects) and go independent. His toy profits have funded his research in advanced battery technology, specifically thin-film lithium-ion conductive membranes. And that work sparked the idea for JTEC. Besides, he jokes, “All inventors have to have an engine. It’s like a rite of passage.”
Solar energy technology is enjoying its day in the sun with the advent of innovations from flexible photovoltaic (PV) materials to thermal power plants that concentrate the sun’s heat to drive turbines. But even the best system converts only about 30 percent of received solar energy into electricity—making solar more expensive than burning coal or oil. That will change if Lonnie Johnson’s invention works. The Atlanta-based independent inventor of the Super Soaker squirt gun (a true technological milestone) says he can achieve a conversion efficiency rate that tops 60 percent with a new solid-state heat engine. It represents a breakthrough new way to turn heat into power.
Johnson, a nuclear engineer who holds more than 100 patents, calls his invention the Johnson Thermoelectric Energy Conversion System, or JTEC for short. This is not PV technology, in which semiconducting silicon converts light into electricity. And unlike a Stirling engine, in which pistons are powered by the expansion and compression of a contained gas, there are no moving parts in the JTEC. It’s sort of like a fuel cell: JTEC circulates hydrogen between two membrane-electrode assemblies (MEA). Unlike a fuel cell, however, JTEC is a closed system. No external hydrogen source. No oxygen input. No wastewater output. Other than a jolt of electricity that acts like the ignition spark in an internal-combustion engine, the only input is heat.
Here’s how it works: One MEA stack is coupled to a high- temperature heat source (such as solar heat concentrated by mirrors), and the other to a low-temperature heat sink (ambient air). The low-temperature stack acts as the compressor stage while the high-temperature stack functions as the power stage. Once the cycle is started by the electrical jolt, the resulting pressure differential produces voltage across each of the MEA stacks. The higher voltage at the high-temperature stack forces the low-temperature stack to pump hydrogen from low pressure to high pressure, maintaining the pressure differential. Meanwhile hydrogen passing through the high-temperature stack generates power.
“It’s like a conventional heat engine,” explains Paul Werbos, program director at the National Science Foundation, which has provided funding for JTEC. “It still uses temperature differences to create pressure gradients. Only instead of using those pressure gradients to move an axle or wheel, he’s using them to force ions through a membrane. It’s a totally new way of generating electricity from heat.”
The bigger the temperature differential, the higher the efficiency. With the help of Heshmat Aglan, a professor of mechanical engineering at Alabama’s Tuskegee University, Johnson hopes to have a low-temperature prototype (200-degree centigrade) completed within a year’s time. The pair is experimenting with high-temperature membranes made of a novel ceramic material of micron-scale thickness. Johnson envisions a first-generation system capable of handling temperatures up to 600 degrees. (Currently, solar concentration using parabolic mirrors tops 800 degrees centigrade.) Based on the theoretical Carnot thermodynamic cycle, at 600 degrees efficiency rates approach 60 percent, twice those of today’s solar Stirling engines.
This engine, Johnson says, can operate on tiny scales, or generate megawatts of power. If it proves feasible, drastically reducing the cost of solar power would only be a start. JTEC could potentially harvest waste heat from internal combustion engines and combustion turbines, perhaps even the human body. And no moving parts means no friction and fewer mechanical failures.
As an engineer, Johnson says he has always been interested in energy conversion. In fact, it was while working on an idea for an environmentally friendly heat pump (one that would not require Freon) that he came up with the Super Soaker, which earned him millions of dollars in royalties. That money allowed Johnson to quit NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab (where he worked on the Galileo Mission, among other projects) and go independent. His toy profits have funded his research in advanced battery technology, specifically thin-film lithium-ion conductive membranes. And that work sparked the idea for JTEC. Besides, he jokes, “All inventors have to have an engine. It’s like a rite of passage.”
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