Tuesday, October 30, 2007

US$/C$ exchange rate impacts

US investors have been scoring some big wins with the relative devaluation of their currency.

For example, the one year return of Encana on the NYSE is 40%. One year return of Encana on the TSE is 20%. US investors have done VERY well; Canadian investors OK.



If American investment guru Dennis Gartmann actually did as he said in this newsletter and sold out of Canada after the Hunter report he may have lost out; for example note that ECA is up 10% in the period in US dollar terms.

The runup in the

The runup of the Canadian dollar has been great for Canadians going south, and Canadians who have debt denominated in US. I can't find any figures but believe I've seen the federal government's debt was 50% denominated in US$. If this is true the federal debt has gone down dramatically.

Those are the winners. The benefits are not showing up for consumers and it is placing a lot of strain on all kinds of exporters, especially low margin manufacturers. I feel for them (at least the legal exporters LOL); we've got to get to grips with how to keep our exporters in business or Canada will soon be following the US into a currency abyss relative to other countries in the world.

Open question: where should Canadians be putting their investments now? Leave comments please. I'm wondering if there are other companies listed on the NYSE who have most of their revenue in sectors that will remain insulated by the US$ drop; much as ECA did. Remember, the C$ will at some point start to track the US $; we can only get so high relative to the US $ and our industries will not be able to function.

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