CALGARY, EDMONTON -- Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach will present his vision of the province's future and explain his decision on energy royalties in an Oct. 24 television fireside chat that political insiders believe will be the prelude to a late fall election.
The rookie Premier has insisted he was looking to next spring for an election, but a surprise increase in new polling numbers after a huge slump earlier this year has dramatically changed election expectations.
"There's a definite possibility of a fall election," said Alan Hallman, a Progressive Conservative strategist in Calgary who ran the leadership campaign of Jim Dinning, the front-runner in the race to win Ralph Klein's job before unexpectedly losing to Mr. Stelmach last December.
The deciding factor to go to the polls is whether Mr. Stelmach's decision on the contentious question of oil and natural gas royalties goes over well with voters.
Energy companies have threatened to yank billions of dollars in investments immediately if the recent recommendations to significantly increase royalties are fully adopted - but Albertans are generally supportive of at least some increase to royalties.
"I don't know why [Mr. Stelmach] would wait till spring," Mr. Hallman said. "A perfect opportunity is presenting itself."
Tom Olsen, a spokesman for the Premier, said Mr. Stelmach has not made up his mind on an election date, but noted options are open.
"He could go, if he wanted, this fall; he could go next spring," Mr. Olsen said.
Mr. Stelmach's first months as Premier did not go well and his party's 36-year political dynasty appeared to be collapsing as support for the Conservatives plummeted to 39 per cent in June from 54 per cent in 2006.
But a poll published this week indicated a modest recovery to 45 per cent, compared with the Opposition Liberals, led by Kevin Taft, slipping to 15 per cent from 20 per cent.
The Oct. 24 television address, jokingly dubbed by some as "Ed TV," is expected to last about 20 minutes, slated for the latter half of 6 p.m. newscasts across the province. As for the royalties decision itself, it may come a day or two earlier than the Premier's address.
Executive directors of both the Conservative and Liberal parties say they already have about half their candidates nominated and are ready for a fall election.
NDP Leader Brian Mason said the Conservatives should pass royalties legislation before going to the polls but added that his party is ready regardless.
The opportunity for Mr. Stelmach is a challenging one. An independent expert panel in September concluded that Alberta has been missing out on billions of dollars of oil and gas revenues, calling for a major increase in royalties paid to Edmonton.
The province's Auditor-General revealed in early October that the Alberta Department of Energy has called for higher royalties for several years, but those recommendations were kept secret and rejected by Mr. Klein's government - where Mr. Stelmach was a long-time minister.
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