Alberta Land Sales Crater

Published: Friday, August 15, 2008

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/calgarybusiness/story.html?id=bb52dcad-74ef-4be2-a3da-43fee2617c26

Click on image for bigger and more readable version:

Sunspots May Vanish??

Hope these guys are wrong. We don't need another ice age.

Sick Nazi Orgy With 5 Hookers

This is beyond hilarous:

"I'm a sadomasochist who rents five hookers at a time. Just don't call me a Nazi."


Formula 1 chief airs raunchy sex life to prove he's no Nazi

DOUG SAUNDERS

E-mail Doug Saunders | Read Bio | Latest Columns
July 10, 2008

LONDON -- If it were possible to craft the perfect tabloid headline, the editors of London's News of the World accomplished it a few Sundays ago, uniting the favourite topics of its readers - sex, crime, celebrity, motor sports and the Second World War - in the page-filling Formula 1 Boss Has Sick Nazi Orgy With 5 Hookers.

In a London courtroom this week, that Formula 1 boss is throwing his entire sex life before the public eye in a battle to have part of that headline retracted, to be specific, exactly one of its 10 explosive words.

Max Mosley, 68, who since 1993 has been the president of motor racing's top governing body, does not deny that he met five hookers in a Chelsea flat, or that he engaged in a sadomasochistic orgy with them for five hours in exchange for several thousand dollars, or that he wore a prison outfit and the women German-style military uniforms, shouting at him in German while shaving him, inspecting his head for lice, humiliating him and sexually abusing him. In fact, he told the court that he has had a lifelong "unfortunate interest" in such activities.

The word in question is "Nazi." It is a sore point for the racing chief, who is the son of Sir Oswald Mosley, the head of the British Union of Fascists, Britain's main Nazi party in the 1930s and 40s. Max was born to Oswald Mosley's second wife, Diana Mitford, after the two were married in Germany by Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propaganda minister, with Hitler among the guests of honour. For much of his childhood, his parents were in British prisons.

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But in his battle to persuade the court that there were no Nazi connotations in the Germanic prison-themed humiliation session, which was videotaped by a prostitute paid by the tabloid and then posted on the paper's website, Mr. Mosley may have plunged himself into a deeper scandal, one that calls into question the judgment and politics of the wealthy community involved in international auto racing.

Last month, Formula 1's leading teams gave Mr. Mosley an overwhelming vote of confidence, 105 votes to 55, at an emergency meeting in Paris as the scandal was at its peak. That vote outraged German racing teams Mercedes and BMW, Japanese teams Toyota and Honda, the government of Israel and numerous racing celebrities such as Stirling Moss.

Yesterday, the racing boss's lawyers argued that there was no Nazi content in the role-playing session, and that Mr. Mosley had been pretending to be an English prisoner being moved into a British institution that just happened to have a German-speaking guard. The uniforms, they said, had been purchased for the occasion at Marks & Spencer. His lawyers said there was "nothing unmistakably Nazi" in the scenes.

Mr. Mosley is suing the newspaper for damages, claiming it invaded his privacy without cause, eavesdropping on a strictly private sex act in contravention of Britain's press codes, and caused him considerable damage. He has argued that his penchant for theatrical whipping and spanking scenarios is well within the conventional range of upper-class British sexual practices.

The News of the World is countering that Mr. Mosley's alleged covert politics are of considerable public interest and that laws may have been broken, so the reporters were justified in invading his privacy.

And in the best tradition of British libel trials, the paper's editors have used the occasion to bring forth even more embarrassing details about Mr. Mosley - and on this occasion, the humiliation does not appear to provide him pleasure.

"I know blood was drawn," News of the World editor Colin Myler told the court yesterday with evident relish, "because he had a plaster [bandage] on his pink bottom."

One of Mr. Mosley's lawyers argued that a crime could not have been committed since everything was self-inflicted. On Tuesday he called several of the prostitutes as witnesses, and they testified that the Third Reich played no part in their role-playing games. He conceded that the fantasies were conducted with one of the women wearing a Luftwaffe jacket and all of them speaking "cod German," but that this was normal.

"Had I wanted a Nazi scene, I would have said I wanted one and [the women] would have got some of the inexpensive Nazi stuff from the joke shops that provide uniforms and would not have gone to Marks & Spencer and got quite expensive uniforms," he said.

As for the head-lice checking, which the paper argued was a clear reference to the treatment of Jews in Nazi concentration camps, he said it was "the kind of thing these people do all the time."

Reporter Neville Thurlbeck, who organized the sting operation, yesterday ridiculed Mr. Mosley's defence.

"Why should he order German dominatrices to beat him with sticks? You might argue it was a German theme; it certainly wasn't Hansel and Gretel. ... There was an overwhelming, absolutely overwhelming Nazi theme.

"I was completely surprised by the level of the nazism, as we saw it."

The civil trial continues.

Oil Price Falling?

This is a very typical headline that we’ve been observing over the years in relation to oil prices. The headline and article aren’t lying; but there is a very careful and in my opinion orchestrated media coverage to minimize oil price increases. NO kidding, follow this trend for yourself as there will undoubtably be more occurances of this media message in the future.

In this particular case, the fact oil set a record high price is minimized and the emphasis is on “Oil Falls”. As opposed to emphasizing it closed at an all time high, the emphasis is that the price fell from an interday high that was at an even higher price than the close.

Personally I find this very Orwellian.

Oil Falls From Record as U.S. House Passes Speculation Measure

By Margot Habiby

June 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell in New York, retreating from the record $140.39 a barrel reached yesterday, as the U.S. House of Representatives approved a bill aimed at curbing excessive energy-market speculation.

The bill, which passed 402-19, would require the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to consider using position limits, or constraints on the size of the stake each speculative investor can own, and raising margin requirements, the amount of money required to trade. It was approved after the record was set.

The measure's ``not likely to be bullish,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst for Citi Futures Perspective in New York. ``You can argue that it may not be effective, but I don't know that you can actually argue that it's bullish.''

Crude oil for August delivery fell as much as $1.03, or 0.7 percent, to $138.61 a barrel, and was at $138.80 at 8:59 a.m. in Sydney in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Yesterday, oil rose $5.09, or 3.8 percent, to $139.64 a barrel, a record settlement price, as Libya threatened to cut output, OPEC's president said prices may reach $170 by the summer and the dollar weakened. Yesterday's all-time-high intraday price surpassed the $139.89 reached June 16.

To contact the reporter on this story: Margot Habiby in Dallas at mhabiby@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: June 26, 2008 19:07 EDT

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&refer=energy&sid=aB1DPOiY.bA8

Stunning Graph of World Cement Production

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4162

Swamped

This article has "peak oil" and "declining EROI" written all over it. See comments within.

PAST ENERGY BOOMS HAVE BEEN GOOD FOR CANADA. NOT THIS TIME, HEATHER SCOFFIELD WRITES

HEATHER SCOFFIELD

00:00 EDT Tuesday, June 10, 2008

OTTAWA -- The energy boom used to be a wonderful thing for Montreal valve maker Velan Inc.

The company saw its order book swell in recent years as it serviced the refining and petrochemical industry that bloomed when oil and gas prices took off.

But that has all changed. In recent months, as energy prices soared to heights few had forecast, chief executive officer Karel Velan saw transportation costs jump, the price tag on parts from Asia surge because of fuel surcharges, and margins on exports disappear as the Canadian dollar rode the oil rally.

"[To ship valves] from our Granby, Quebec, plant to Burlington, Vermont, we used to pay $110 for a huge truck. Now it's $350," Mr. Velan said. "That's an enormous difference over three years."

Two observations. First is that the incredible cost increase noted is very hard to reconcile with inflation at the 2% level or so that official statistics quote. This is explained very well in a recent article in Harpers, a good summary of which is here

Second; these cost increases experienced by suppliers to the energy industry are past along to the energy industry increasing its costs. This makes for the end game of the energy business a zero sum game. We are like a cat chasing it's own tail.

Why? Energy return on energy invested. Abreviated as EROI. As energy sources go down in quality, it takes more and more energy to produce energy, the net energy output which would be a rough proxy for the net profit decreases. Links to good summaries are here and here.

This has disastrous effects on society as a whole. More later.

For years, rising prices for oil and gas prices were an unambiguous positive for the Canadian economy. The oil patch poured money into development, and that money rippled across the country, flowing into businesses such as Mr. Velan's, into government coffers, and into the pockets of workers and shareholders.

But now, the balance has tipped. The energy boom, economists and businesses say, is now more of a burden than a blessing.

With oil trading at over $120 (U.S.) in recent weeks before closing at $138.54 on Friday, economists and governments are being forced to rethink how very expensive energy will affect all the building blocks of the economy: industrial output, income, inflation, productivity, spending, saving and investment.

"Certainly there's a case to be made that there is less benefit from oil going from $120 to $130 than from $50 to $60," said Robert Fairholm, director of Canadian economic forecasting services at the Centre for Spatial Economics, one of most sophisticated forecasting organizations in the country.

"The cost of the price change is larger, and arguably the benefits will be less helpful."

Oil has more than doubled in price in 1½ years, rising to $134.35 a barrel at yesterday's close from $61.05 at the end of 2006. For much of the runup, cash blanketed the Canadian economy as oil and gas companies invested their profits in exploration and development, paid royalties and taxes, hired more employees and gave them hefty raises.

Even Central Canada, mired in a manufacturing recession, managed to score a piece of the oil boom, offering up financing, machinery and equipment, and labour.

But the trickle-down process isn't working as well any more.

Now, soaring energy costs are cutting into businesses' spending plans and shoppers' budgets across the country, even driving some companies to shut down.

Consumer confidence has plunged recently to a seven-year low, mainly because of the "sticker shock" of gasoline at more than $1.30 (Canadian) a litre. Fuel oil consumption has dwindled.

General Motors' announcement last week that it will close its truck plant in Oshawa, Ont., since no one wants to buy gas-guzzlers any more, is one of many linked to higher gasoline prices.

The tourism industry is bracing for a slack summer. Airlines are adding surcharges. Train fares are going up, and even diapers are getting more expensive.

Last week, Bank of Nova Scotia raised its forecast for the annual average price of oil, but had to revise downward its forecast for Canadian growth as a result. In the past, the revision probably would have been up.

Crude's rally has been so extreme that the economic models economists once used to show how energy profits rippled through the Canadian economy have been overtaken. Oil and gas prices have risen so fast and so high that the Ontario government warned that its assumptions about how energy affects its revenues are no longer reliable.

"We're in uncharted territory," says Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist at ARC Financial Corp. in Calgary.

"Every energy commodity is rising, and given it affects the way we work and play, it affects everything," he said.

Ontario stands to be hurt the most among the Canadian provinces. It imported all 209 million barrels of oil it needed last year, spending about $15-billion. This year, if the price averages $120 (U.S.) a barrel, it will spend about $25-billion (Canadian).

The biggest oil and gas threat to Canada's economy, however, is foreign reaction to rising energy prices. Demand in emerging markets seems insatiable for now, keeping commodity prices high.

But among rich countries that buy most of Canada's exports, consumers are cutting back drastically, especially in the United States.

"We might be at a point where there's a tradeoff between [the costs and benefits of high energy prices], and the net benefit becomes a negative," warns Stéfane Marion, economist at National Bank Financial.

Oil's trickle-down wealth effect is also being slowed because companies are no longer spending their money in Canada as fast as prices are rising.

During crude's runup, companies plowed billions - about $20-billion last year alone - into developing Alberta's oil sands.

That spending, coupled with the wealth gained by shareholders, fuelled a surge in the services sector in the West, housing and construction activity across the country, rock-bottom unemployment, and bursting government coffers, not just in the West but in many parts of Canada.

But now, an overheated economy has driven costs in Alberta sky high, making it less enticing for companies to ramp up investment in the province. So investment, always slow to change pace, is not keeping up with price increases.

Now isn't this interesting. I never knew an oilman who couldn't spend more than he could earn. The buckets of money flowing into oil companies isn't being reinvested because it seems to cost too much to do new developments. Another way of looking at this is that the developments in general are of low quality in terms of EROI. It takes almost as much energy invested to produce the energy developed.

Economists have this whacky concept that as prices rise, new resources become profitable and an endless stream of new oil and gas developments will meet the needs of consumers.

Sorry, doesn't work that way. No point in producing energy if it takes nearly as much energy to produce it. This is a zero sum game. The economist model of "price goes up, energy supply goes up" is a form of perpetual motion. Which of course is an impossibility. Physical limits apply. In the case of the energy business, when the depleting resource passes a certain point of depletion no matter how high the price rises there will be no production response as it simply isn't available to produce.

The long-term, massively scaled oil sands projects won't speed up.

"Oil sands producers can't go any faster, even with higher oil prices," said David Yager, chief executive officer of HSE Integrated Ltd., a small energy services company in Calgary.

At the same time, there are fewer targets in conventional oil - that is, non-oil-sands. Conventional production in Alberta peaked in 1973 and has slid more than 40 per cent since the mid-1990s.

The decline in conventional oil production in Alberta is yet another example of Peak Oil. I find it baffling why people find it hard to accept the Peak Oil concept on a global scale when there are legions of examples in different regions.

On the East Coast, where existing offshore fields are seeing further development, no giant new find has been discovered.

Drilling activity over all will likely fall this year: The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors predicts the number of completed wells will fall to 18,000 - down 6 per cent from 2007, and down 20 per cent from 2006. The forecast would have been even lower without soaring energy prices.

We can in part thank the Alberta government for messing with the royalty system for this. But even with that atrocious piece of policy set aside, the numbers are staggering. In what should be the most amazing boom in the history of Alberta is actually slowing down. Again, I attribute this to EROI. The last price runup generally resulted in dismal results with only very select strategies and management teams achieving success. I attribute this to the oil and gas business being more tricky than ever before. Lower margin properties to work on because the EROI has gotten so much smaller.

Oil sands development will bring more production on line, but slowly.

Instead of spending on development, some companies are buying back shares, handing out dividends, or exploring energy interests outside of Canada that hold more potential.

Again, symptomatic that Canadian oil and gas companies are struggling to do profitable reinvestments, even at record all time prices.

"To get the multiplier effect, you need the reinvestment. That's what you really want," Mr. Tertzakian said.

Gregg Scott, a land broker who helps secure new exploration territory for oil and gas companies, sees it happening before his eyes in Calgary. Three years ago, when crude was $50 (U.S.) a barrel, companies spent aggressively.

Now, many are hesitant about embracing sky-high prices and are taking a step back, he said.

"There's more planning," he said.

"Companies are going to take a cautious approach as they move forward with their plans for this year and 2009."

Hmmmm..... Apparently he's missed the land sales chasing the Montney in BC and the Bakken in Saskatchewan.

Economists point to one possible silver lining: Higher energy costs could push Canadian companies to be more innovative and improve productivity.

More wisdom from economists. Yeah dude, we'll try to be more innovative and productive. Sheesh.......

They'll take hope in James Devlin, president of Trentway-Wagar Inc., the Peterborough, Ont.-based operator of the Coach Canada bus network.

He has boosted ticket prices by between 5 and 7 per cent, and has added a fuel surcharge of about the same amount. But he's also applying new technologies, such as satellite tracking, to manage his routes more efficiently.

Plus, he wants to turn the issue of high gas prices to his advantage by marketing bus travel as a way to help the environment.

"These are very trying times," he says.

Earthquake Clouds

2 videos of aurora-borealis looking clouds before major earthquake in China. Very cool. Clearly there are things about geophysics that we don't understand yet.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKMTSDzU1Z4

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzVamNQzfYA&feature=related